The biggest problem with shale gas is its profitability.

“Does that even make money...?” That sort of thing.

Of course, it’s something that’ll be resolved later, but honestly, even with my knowledge, expecting results like those in the 2010s is difficult in the current situation.

The core issue is that I’m a financier by nature, so I can’t interfere properly.

So then what do I do...?

“...But how did you discover the oil field? Do you have some kind of superpower or something?”

–Shrug.

“I just got lucky. Thanks to that, I was able to push things forward quickly, right?”

I just solved it with future knowledge. Honestly, pretending not to know was its own kind of torment.

–‘Whoops, I was just looking around to develop shale gas, and oil popped out of the ground.’

–‘...?’

ExxonMobil has such a huge influence on the U.S. stock market—do you think I wouldn’t know about oil? Every major oil field is already in my head.

The real problem is the ‘plausibility’ of discovering one, but I handled that through shale gas development and acquiring oil companies...

The company that ‘accidentally’ discovered a massive oil field quickly sold the drilling rights to Exxon (it’s still about two years before Exxon merges with Mobil). And based on that deal, I acquired the technology and infrastructure.

Ah, and of course, I didn’t forget to buy up a large volume of Exxon stock during the process. It’s always nice trading with insider information.

“It was a bit of a shame, sure. I mean, oil field development takes forever, so there wasn’t much choice.”

With good luck, shale gas can be extracted in half a year, but oil fields? Not a chance. That usually takes five to ten years.

Still... thanks to that, oil prices dropped fast.

Of course they did. There was still shale gas sitting in the same places that had been drained for decades in Texas—just stick a straw in and suck it up.

.

.

.

As I played with my niece, I flipped through the newspaper Seo Ji-yeon had prepared and laughed contentedly.

–Rustle.

[“Shale Innovation” Based on Hydraulic Fracturing Achieved... Oil Prices Expected to Fall Further]

[“One Sows, Another Reaps?” Backlash Grows Against Oil Majors’ ‘Technology Theft’]

“Mm, they’re doing a good job, as expected.”

I trust American corporations. I believe in just how ruthlessly they can pursue profit.

The legacy of Rockefeller—the descendants of the legendary Standard Oil—are all clustered in Texas.

For over a hundred years, they’ve reigned over Texas. They know the land and its oil better than anyone, and once they’re sure there’s oil, they’ll rush in without hesitation.

“...Are they trying to keep this out of the media?”

Seo Ji-yeon asked, staring as I read the paper.

“That’s part of it. And it’s not really my area of expertise, so I’m leaving it to others. I don’t actually know much about the oil industry.”

By laying the groundwork like this, I can remain the victim. No matter how deep Americans fall into conspiracy theories, they’ll never believe that a company that got its tech stolen is actually the cause of falling oil prices.

‘Digging oil myself to lower the price... that’s not exactly a refined approach.’

The strategy of “killing with a borrowed knife” is still my favorite.

***

There are several conditions required for a moratorium.

The most important, of course, is that the country must be broke.

A moratorium isn’t some WWE stunt where you cry out, “I’m dying—!” Even the defeated Japanese Empire after World War II didn’t declare a moratorium; they printed more currency and endured hyperinflation. That’s how serious a moratorium is.

And the second condition is... a complete lack of will to repay the debt.

“Young lady, would you perhaps... consider postponing the plan?”

“Huh? Hmm, we’ve come this far, can’t go ruining it now!”

Seo Ji-yeon looked ready to follow my orders as usual, but Lee Si-hyun seemed to think differently.

Well, the two of them do have different personalities. Seo Ji-yeon may speak casually with me, but her loyalty is no joke, and in critical moments, she always follows my lead.

By contrast... Lee Si-hyun is polite and formal with me, but every now and then she voices objections like this.

“Reason?”

“The Russian short-term bonds (GKOs) are in serious trouble. At this rate, the collapse might be irreversible. You don’t want that either, do you?”

“Serious, huh. I know. Most of Russia’s budget—which already suffers from chronic deficits—comes from oil sales, and the rest is patched up with short-term bonds. Similar to our country, but in a worse state.”

So something similar is bound to happen. The stock market will crash so deep the bottom can’t be seen, the ruble’s exchange rate will be demolished.

In an already half-collapsed economy, foreign investors will try to salvage what’s left of their severed limbs and pull their money out. Not just Russia, but neighboring emerging economies will be devastated too.

“Actually... it’s a bit more serious than that. From what I’ve found out recently... Russia doesn’t have any money. Much less than expected.”

“Yeah, sounds like a normal day. Let’s respect Russia’s traditional culture.”

“GKO is actually structured like a Ponzi scheme! Everyone’s been blinded by the high returns and buying Russian bonds, but Russia’s just been using money from new buyers to pay old ones!”

“Didn’t the interest rate go over 40%? Honestly, this is just the natural result.”

“At this rate... a dictator could rise. When the economy collapses, people tend to turn extreme.”

“Hm, that won’t do.”

–Tap.

I wiggled my foot and tilted my head.

A dictator—specifically, any dictator besides me—was something I couldn’t allow. Wasn’t the reason I threw my favorite card into that frozen wasteland exactly because of my hatred for dictators?

“But it’ll probably be fine. That is, Russia’s economic situation is actually better than you think, Si-hyun.”

“...Pardon? How is that even possible?”

Lee Si-hyun looked at me with suspicion.

Even with inflation over 80%, a 70% ruble devaluation, and a 60% stock market crash... Russia’s moratorium surprisingly didn’t deal irreparable damage to the country.

Later, rising oil prices contributed, but it was also because the general public was already indifferent to financial matters.

It’s like one of those clichés where a shattered mind becomes immune to mental attacks.

In our modern era, where capitalism has evolved to extremes, people say one big event like a moratorium will topple everything like dominos?

That’s true. But the Russian /N_o_v_e_l_i_g_h_t/ people still weren’t accustomed to what “capitalist development” even meant.

They had already built a surprisingly stable and traditional system of barter—and wise men who kept that system running didn’t care if the economy collapsed.

According to Russian tradition, this was basically an annual event.

“Well, Si-hyun, you only lived in Russia for a few years, so I guess you wouldn’t know that well.”

“...”

Ah, did I hit a sore spot? I gently patted Si-hyun to comfort her.

“It’s okay. I know what you’re worried about. Oil prices will stay low, so recovery might be slow, but if we throw in enough money, things will stabilize.”

Most problems in the world can be solved with money. This one too.

A financial crisis because Russia lacked money? And the Russian people are suffering?

Then the solution’s simple: just dump more money in, wildly and recklessly. The whole mess started because foreign investment dried up, right?

“Ah. Right. Since we have the money...”

Like she was entranced by the power of gold, Lee Si-hyun muttered blankly—perhaps realizing for the first time just how much money was in her hands.

I grinned playfully and said,

“See? Didn’t I tell you we’d need more money?”

“...Honestly, I thought ten billion dollars would be enough.”

“It’s going to fall short soon. So work harder from now on.”

“Honestly, you’re so unfair, young lady. You wreck the economy, and I have to pay to fix it?”

Grumbling, Lee Si-hyun sat down in her chair, but her complexion had improved noticeably.

She’s not stupid—she knows full well that this is an enormous opportunity. Just like those who bought at the bottom during the IMF crisis and survived, anyone who gets through this kind of disaster ends up winning.

–Hah.

With a soft sigh, Lee Si-hyun stuck out her lips and joked,

“In America, money works people, but in Russia, people work money.”

It was an elegant Russian-style joke—about the gold-drunk capitalist paradise of the U.S. and the utterly ruined Russian economy, now so broken that a single individual could bend it with ease.

She really has become one of the elite.

***

January 4, 1997.

While Yoo Ha-yeon was pretending to wrestle with oil companies and stirring up trouble in Russia, something else was unfolding on Wall Street.

[LTCM Simultaneously Sells U.S. Treasury Bonds and Buys Russian Bonds... Bold ‘Big Deal’ Strategy]

[“Russian Bonds Are Undervalued,” Says LTCM Representative, Sending GKO Prices Soaring]

The fund of geniuses—LTCM, recently hailed as the largest hedge fund in the world—had gone all-in on Russia.